Australia’s population big boom theory 

AUSTRALIA is adding a new Darwin every 20 weeks in a population surge that is set to impact household wealth, lifestyles and home prices.Projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics put the nation’s population at 40 million within the next 40 years, more than double what it was just a decade ago.

And the strongest growth won’t be in the big states of New South Wales and Victoria despite both their capital cities bulging with eight million people by 2057.

Social researcher Mark McCrindle said Australia’s population was being driven higher by a combination of new migrants, a birth boom and a longevity boom.

“It’s big numbers. The 1.4 per cent per annum current increase sounds modest in percentage terms, but is one new Darwin every 20 weeks and a new Tasmania every 18 months,” he said. Darwin’s current population is about 145,000.

Mr McCrindle said the population growth would improve household wealth as demand for housing increased property prices, but this would vary between cities.
Australia’s strong population growth will be good for the economy and house price increases.

“People with property will gain from that. Those without property are not really sharing in the wealth that the growth brings,” he said.

However, everyone in large cities would feel the strain of traffic bottlenecks, increasing travel times, longer waiting lists and infrastructure issues he said.

“Some of our cities are starting to feel the pain of that. Australia has been pushing the red line in the past decade or so.”

The ABS projects WA’s population to more than double in the next 40 years from 2.6 million to 6.1 million, and Queensland to grow 85 per cent to 8.9 million.

NSW is projected to grow 45 per cent to 11.2 million, Victoria 64 per cent to 10 million, South Australia 35 per cent to 2.3 million, Tasmania 9 per cent to 567,000, the ACT 80 per cent to 711,000 and the Northern Territory 77 per cent to 434,000.

Mr McCrindle said Queensland was Australia’s most decentralised state, with more than half its population living outside the capital city, giving it greater capacity to grow.


KPMG demographer Bernard Salt said Sydney and Melbourne were on track to add another three million people each within 40 years, while the end of the mining boom might moderate growth in WA and Queensland.

He said the projected growth would mean “greater competition for housing in the future than ever before”. This would require increased housing density and more employment closer to where people lived, he said.

“As the world grows from seven billion to 11 billion people, Australia one way or another will attract more people through immigration,” Mr Salt said.

“We might lament the fact that Melbourne and Sydney are not what they once were, but they are better places than equivalent cities in the northern hemisphere.”

Unemployment was unlikely to get worse with a bigger population because more people created more opportunities, Mr Salt said.

“Twenty-five years ago unemployment was closer to 12 per cent.” Despite high migration levels in the past decade, Australia’s unemployment rate had stayed below 6 per cent, he said.

“Some people say they want Australia to be better, not bigger. I want Australia to be bigger and better, because it is bigger and better today than it was 10, 20 and 40 years ago.”


3 Comments Add yours

  1. Lyn says:

    Sydney and Melbourne are planned to be 8 million by 2051 that is more than 86% increase in population for each with the current birth rate of 1.3% where will these people come from.? They have already move our food growing out of the Sydney basin. If we have disasters natural or man made that impact our ports, airports and limited raid access 8 million people will be at risk . AND WE HAVE SOLD CONTROL OF OUR STRATEGIC FOOD, WATER, TRANSPORT AND ENERGY ASSETS TO OTHER COUNTRIES AND GLOBAL BUSINESS!!!! Whatever happened to decisions made in the national ????


  2. Diane Wilson says:

    It’s easily fixed – everyone who hasn’t pledged their loyalty to the country and its laws and customs LEAVES!


  3. John. says:

    I totally agree with both Lyn and Diane – in a nutshell we have had ALL decision making on OUR future in this country taken from us by a few politicians with there views on what Australia should be.
    Our immigration policy is splitting Australia in half – those who will NOT abide by our rules and laws and the rest of us , this is a mix that will explode and send Australia into civil war one day , just like the middle east is now . “God save Australia and keep us free”.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s